Tottenham vs. Manchester City: A pressing duel and a collapse of the total

We analyzed every tenth second of possession for both teams and saw that, starting in the 52nd minute, Tottenham began to experience systemic breakdowns in their wide 4-2-3-1 structure: Cole Palmer drew the right full-back into the center, leaving Walker’s space open for a direct pass to Haaland. Meanwhile, Spurs’ pressing trigger was set to first pass into the center, making the pressing itself late and statistically disadvantageous—the average PPDA rose to 11.8 before the key period, then plummeted.

According to our Flow Momentum model, the PPDA drop to 6.9 was a result not only of fatigue but also of a change in Pochettino’s playbook: the team abandoned high passes and shifted their defensive line 12 meters deeper. This negated the over 3.5 goals value, as City were gaining possession without pace, and their finishing was based on positional attacks with a low xThreat. This is why traders closed overs in 0.05 increments, without waiting for official lineup announcements.

We also compared sequence-based pressing traps: Tottenham had nine, but only three resulted in interceptions and ball control for more than three seconds—a clear sign that the trap structure isn’t working without Romero’s backup. Guardiola, on the other hand, maintained a consistently high PPDA of 7.2–7.5 and suppressed the central corridor, causing Spurs to lose 22% of their passes after the second touch in the middle third. The market reads this metric instantly, so the total movement wasn’t emotional, but entirely rational.